On ABC RN this morning medical epidemiologist Mike Toole was talking about the modelling done by the Burnett Institute on the Victorian second wave.

There have now been a number of media stories covering this call for tighter shutdowns in Greater Sydney because the modelling predicts that unless an equivalent to Melbourne’s stage 4 restrictions is introduced in Sydney we could be in lockdown until Christmas.

NSW restrictions will last months under ‘soft lockdown’ approach, epidemiologist says

What are the stage 4 lockdowns? Essentially, shut down all retail except food stores, pharmacies and grog shops. Essential services then limited to emergency services, police, health, transport and deliveries. Schools closed and movement limited to 5 Km radius from home.

Yes the epidemiologists are recommending following the course taken by “Dictator Dan”. So will “Gold Standard Gladys” aka “The Woman Who Saved Australia” bite the bullet and take the next step? Which should be a lot easier to do now that she and her treasurer have negotiated a decent support package for businesses and individual workers?  

Well not today. NSW reports 97 new local COVID cases as Sydney lockdown extended for two weeks

The stage 4 lockdowns will not affect the event industry because it is already shut down. Essentially it should mean that we could be back to work sooner.

But “hang on” I hear you say – what about the UK opening up next week? They are planning to “live with the virus” and to open up hospitality and events. 

Two key points – 52% of the adult population are fully vaccinated, and the government are prepared to accept more deaths. As Prime Minister Johnson acknowledged, “We must reconcile ourselves sadly to more deaths from COVID”. Boris Johnson’s biggest gamble is trusting the public

I’m sure the exhibition, conference and other business events will be tightly managed with appropriate COVID safe measures in place. However, watching the football crowds in London this week makes me think they are gamble.

But 9% of the adult population in Australia fully vaccinated is a long way from 52% in the UK, and the Australian death toll is very low by world standards. And although some politicians might be OK with it, I can’t see any Australian political leader advocating “an acceptable death toll”.  

So if you are affected call your local member of parliament and tell them how your business is being affected. My local state member’s electorate takes in Fairfield, so he is a bit busy at the moment, but his staffer did call me back and promised to pass on my concerns to the member. I’m still waiting on a call back from my federal member.